When tariffs kill the vibe: Etsy sinks, GitLab soars

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Winner — GitLab (+$279.00 / +6.17%)
GitLab climbed after a burst of bullish options—69,345 call contracts, a 544% jump over average—signaled traders leaning long. Management visibility helped: the CFO was slated to present at Piper Sandler’s Growth Frontiers Conference on Sept. 11.

Loser — Etsy (–$30.66 / –7.63%)
Etsy sank as the U.S. ended the de minimis duty-free carve-out for sub-$800 parcels at 12:01 a.m. ET, Aug. 29, with a six-month transition that lets postal shippers pay $80–$200 flat fees by origin. Coverage framed the e-commerce hit clearly: Etsy and peers slid on the policy shift.

You know the market’s getting frothy when the AI crown jewel posts "record revenue" and the stock still gets booed out of the room.

Nvidia’s (NVDA) second-quarter fiscal 2026 showed all the right moves—$46.7 billion in revenue (+56% year-over-year, 6% sequential) and a 17% bump in Blackwell data-center sales—yet shares slipped, and not quietly.

What's new:
Nvidia delivered that headline number for Q2 ending July 27, 2025—driven by AI chip demand—but investors focused on two potholes. Data-center revenue, while substantial at $41.1 billion, modestly underwhelmed. And all eyes are on China: U.S. export restrictions still cloud the picture, with H20 chip access limited and revenue-sharing deals forcing Nvidia to hand over roughly 15% of China sales to regulators.

Scorecard:
Blackwell DC revenue up 17% sequentially.
Stock: down~3% in after-hours trading even after record results.
China risk: missing exposure, regulatory friction, revenue-sharing (~15%).
Forward guidance: Q3 revenue forecast at $54 billion, slightly ahead of expectations. $60 billion buyback announced.

Receipts:
Company release: Q2 revenue figures and breakdowns. Reuters recap of mixed reaction, China overhang. Reuters: “Nvidia is AI, but only for so long.” Guardian coverage summarizing the stock pullback in the middle of the bubble and geopolitical concern.

Why it matters:
Geopolitics now touch the heart of AI profits. China used to account for a meaningful share of data-center revenue; now it’s a headache. Buybacks signal confidence—but can’t paper over slowing momentum and policy risk. The stock’s froth seems priced for perfection: anything less triggers a slap.

Our take:
Nvidia remains the flagship name in AI hardware, but its valuation leaves little margin for error. Policy headwinds and the limits of exponential growth make execution risk harder to ignore.

Gross Domestic Product — Q2 upgrade: Real GDP revised to 3.3% annualized; corporate profits rebounded, jobless claims 229k. Rotation risk if growth stays firm and cuts get pushed.

Foreign Exchange — Dollar eases into month-end: Dollar index down roughly 2% in August as futures price an ~85% chance of a September cut. Rate-cut roulette still sets the groove.

Oil — Small weekly gain: Brent $68.26 and West Texas Intermediate $64.32, with weekly rises of ~0.8%/1.0% amid supply headlines and demand fade. Energy tape grinding, not sprinting.

Snowflake — AI tailwind: Snowflake jumped 13–19% after lifting product-revenue guidance, adding $12.5B in market value if gains held. AI budgets are still writing the checks.

Gold — Bid returns: Spot gold neared a five-week high around $3,416/oz as the dollar slipped ~0.5%. Fear hedge back on the desk.

Oracle — Cloud keeps climbing: Oracle lifted cloud-revenue guidance to $15.5B, up 7% YoY, with subscriptions driving the gain. Even legacy giants can still chase the AI glow.

Rates — Curve watch: 10-year 4.258%, 2-year 3.681% mid-week, reflecting cut bets vs. long-term supply risk. Everyone wants cuts; the curve remains skeptical.

That’s the wrap for this week’s market movements. We’ll be back next week with more updates on our live portfolio.

Until then, happy investing!
— The Investogy Team, Kätlin & Siimon

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