📊 Washington’s Quantum Option

Washington tested a new playbook this week. The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration is negotiating to acquire equity positions in quantum computing companies IonQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave in return for research and development grants under the CHIPS and Science Act. The Commerce Department said it is "not currently negotiating" with those companies, although the report stated awards would begin at $10 million per company.

There is a path forward for this. The new CHIPS Research & Development Broad Agency Announcement enables the government to ask for equity, warrants, royalties, or revenue sharing as a condition of funding. It also sets minimum project budgets at $10 million and includes strict domestic control requirements for federally funded intellectual property.

The noise around the technology is getting louder. Google stated that its Willow chip ran a physics algorithm 13,000 times faster than a top supercomputer, with results that could be verified. HSBC and IBM say they have achieved a 34% improvement in the prediction of bond trade outcomes using IBM's Heron processor. McKinsey puts revenues from quantum computing at $28 billion to $72 billion by 2035, though timelines are long, so policy direction might drive stocks ahead of profits.

Oil Sanctions and Energy: U.S. sanctions against Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil pushed Chinese state oil companies to halt seaborne Russian imports while Indian refiners changed to cut imports.

U.S. Housing: Existing home sales in September rose 1.5 percent to a seven-month high of 4.06 million annualized, the report released Oct 23, as mortgage rates stabilized. If volumes continue to strengthen, housing-related businesses and home-improvement demand will solidify.

Equity Fund Flows: U.S. equity funds recorded about 9.7 billion dollars worth of inflows for the week up to Oct 22, reflecting improving risk appetite. Stronger flows lift new issues and prices.

U.S. 10-year Treasuries: After dipping to about 3.98 percent earlier in the week, the 10-year yield moved back above 4 percent today, Oct 24. That move nudges borrowing costs higher and can cool housing and stock valuations.

U.S.-China Summit: The White House announced on Oct 23 that President Trump will meet President Xi in South Korea next week. The announcement eased tensions about a cancelled summit and diminished the near-term risk of new tariffs.

Ukraine Comments: Trump suggested freezing the war near the current lines and implied Kyiv may need to accept territorial losses, in remarks reported on Oct 20. The comment added uncertainty for defense, energy, and European markets.

Alphabet (GOOGL): Anthropic said on Oct 23 it will expand its use of Google Cloud in a deal valued in the tens of billions that gives it access to up to one million of Google’s AI chips, with capacity coming online in 2026. Alphabet shares rose about 3% on Oct 24 after the news, reflecting stronger confidence in Google Cloud’s growth.

Shutdown Impact: As of Oct 24, economists estimated that the federal shutdown was cutting federal spending by about 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points per week on an annualized basis. That forecast lowers revenue and demand forecasts.

The Dow: The index hit an all-time high and almost touched 47,000 on Oct 21, before it pulled back. New highs reflect more lenient financial conditions and decent earnings from large industrial and technology companies.

Breakthrough in quantum error correction: On Oct 24, IBM said a key quantum error-correction algorithm runs in real time on AMD’s standard FPGA chips, a step toward making quantum systems more practical. The headline lifted both stocks intraday, with AMD and IBM stocks each up by about 7% as investors priced in a clearer path to commercial quantum.

Hologic: Blackstone and TPG Capital also on Oct 21, signed to take Hologic private for as much as 18.3 billion dollars, including an overallotment value right, pending approvals. A big medtech take-private could rebalance valuations of women's health peers.

Zions Bancorp: Zions reported year-over-year profit growth and a revenue beat on Oct 20, despite a previously disclosed $50 million charge tied to alleged loan fraud. The result helped calm concerns about broader credit problems for regional banks.

Warner Bros. Discovery: The company said on Oct 21, that it is open to sale talks after unsolicited interest and confirmed it is still splitting into two businesses. Reports also said the board rejected a roughly $24 per share Paramount Skydance proposal, keeping deal options open across media.

Beyond Meat: The company rallied after announcing expanded Walmart distribution on Oct 21, 2025, with intraday gains at times above 80 to 100 percent before easing. The move showed how retail news can amplify trading swings in turnarounds.

Crypto Policy: Trump granted a pardon to Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao on Oct 23, and described previous actions as a war against crypto. The action indicates a more open U.S. policy stance toward digital assets and has the potential to change compliance expectations for exchanges.

Coca-Cola: The company recorded third-quarter earnings of 82 cents per share versus a forecast of 78 cents on approximately 12.5 billion dollars of sales on Oct 21, and credited a consistent flow of demand around the globe. A stable consumer staple provides cash flow expectations until the year-end.

Volkswagen: Company warned on Oct 22 that China's blockade of Nexperia chips would cause short-term production issues, even as it described some stoppages as scheduled. The report showed how auto supply chains remain susceptible to policy pushback in the U.S., Europe, and China.

Other interesting reads:

Caribbean Strike Puts Sea Lanes on Alert: The Pentagon stated a U.S. strike destroyed a suspected drug ship in the Caribbean, killing six people, the latest move in Washington's war on narcotics on the high seas, which keeps maritime insurance and shipping-route risk premia high in the vicinity of Venezuela and could modestly raise enforcement spending on defense suppliers. (The Narcotics Campaign)

New chief, old problems at Porsche: Porsche will post an operating third-quarter loss of approximately €611 million as Chinese demand weakens, U.S. tariffs taint sales, and timing delays in its electric vehicle program rack up extra costs. Michael Leiters, appointed on Oct 17 and due to report on Jan 1, 2026, will manage staff cuts and strategy overhaul to regain margins and revive demand in China. (The Inheritance)

Europe Space Merger: Oct 24, Airbus, Thales, and Leonardo signed a deal to merge their satellite operations for approximately $7 billion to better compete with SpaceX's Starlink and new Chinese constellations. The agreement, coded as Project Bromo and teased as "Project FOMO," is subject to antitrust approval and pending work-share finalizations. (The FOMO Chatters)

🟩 Up this week

Dow Inc. (DOW) +13.74% WTD: The company reported a smaller loss than expected, and cost cuts, together with stronger volumes, drove a beat that gave investors a clearer view of future cash flow. (The Promising Future)

Honeywell International (HON) +6.58% WTD: The company raised its full-year profit outlook on strong aerospace demand, easing worries about debt and future capital spending. (The Profit Outlook)

Valero Energy (VLO) +8.42% WTD: Stronger profit and sanction-driven improvement in fuel margins lifted expected cash generation. (The Unexpected Profit)

American Airlines (AAL) +8.85% WTD: The company raised its profit outlook, reinforcing confidence in paying down debt and planning capacity for next year. (The Guidance Raise)

🟥 Down this week

Southwest Airlines (LUV) −4.24% WTD: The company reported a profit, but its guidance on capacity and route mix disappointed and hurt expectations for revenue per seat. (The Disappointment)

T-Mobile US (TMUS) −3.50% WTD: Subscriber growth was solid, but a cautious outlook raised concerns about future revenue per customer and competitive pressure. (The Solid Growth)

Molina Healthcare (MOH) −17.50% WTD: The company cut its profit outlook again, which weighed on health insurers and lowered expectations for near-term cash flow. (The Expectations)

Netflix (NFLX) −8.74% WTD: Shares fell this week after the company missed profit targets due to a roughly $619 million tax dispute in Brazil, even as revenue met expectations. (The Tax Dispute)

That’s the wrap for this week’s market movements. We’ll be back next week with more updates on our live portfolio.

Until then, happy investing!
— The Investogy Team, Kätlin & Siimon

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