📊Shutdown Math Favors Gold

The U.S. government shut down just after midnight on October 1, 2025, after Congress failed to pass a funding bill. Courts say they can operate normally until October 17, then shift to “essential” work if the lapse drags on. The shutdown is already delaying key economic data, with the Labor and Commerce Departments holding back reports like the monthly jobs numbers. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said statistics will be rescheduled once funding returns.

Markets have taken the shutdown in stride so far. Investors focused more on the policy backdrop, while gold has been pushing to fresh hights this week on expectations of a weaker dollar and potential Fed easing. Still, analysts warned that missing data could complicate the Fed’s October 28–29 meeting. Regulators are also scaling back, with the SEC curtailing operations and IPO approvals at risk. Fitch said the shutdown doesn’t threaten the U.S. credit rating in the near term, but flagged governance concerns.

The economic costs could pile up quickly. The White House estimates the shutdown could shave $15 billion off GDP each week if it drags on. The CBO (Congressional Budget Office) projects that roughly 750,000 federal workers will be furloughed daily, resulting in about $400 million in lost pay every day the government remains closed.

ISM Manufacturing: On Wednesday, October 1, the ISM factory index edged up to 49.1 from 48.7. That still marks seven straight months of contraction, with new orders staying weak. Stocks barely moved, as services and big tech continued to set the tone.

ADP Jobs: The ADP report on Wednesday, October 1 showed private payrolls down 32,000 in September - the sharpest drop in about 2½ years versus a +50,000 forecast, while annual pay rose 4.5%. With the official jobs report delayed by the shutdown, traders used ADP as the stand-in and leaned further toward Fed cuts.

Pfizer–White House Deal: The administration confirmed the pricing deal with Pfizer on Tuesday, September 30, layering in Medicaid most-favored-nation terms, a TrumpRx website, and a three-year tariff exemption; discounts average around 50% and can reach 85%, which kept pharma rallying through Thursday, October 2.

Palantir (PLTR): Shares dropped 6–8% Friday afternoon after Reuters reported a U.S. Army memo warning of “very high risk” security gaps in the NGC2 battlefield network co-developed with partners. The news fueled selling pressure, compounded by a broader Nasdaq pullback.

Gold: On Wednesday, Oct. 1, spot gold briefly touched $3,896 before settling near $3,859, with December futures trading close to $3,880. As of close to Friday’s market close, spot gold was last quoted at $3,859.09/oz.

Electronic Arts (EA): EA agreed to a $55B take-private at $210/share on Monday, September 29, the largest LBO on record, led by PIF, Silver Lake, and Affinity and backed by roughly $36B equity and $20B debt; closing is targeted for fiscal Q1 2027, pending approvals.

Netflix ($NFLX): Stock is heading for its sharpest weekly drop since April, down about 5% by Friday morning. Shares slipped 2–3% midweek and kept drifting lower after Elon Musk called on his followers to cancel their subscriptions. Culture-war headlines hit the stock almost like an earnings warning.

That’s the wrap for this week’s market movements. We’ll be back next week with more updates on our live portfolio.

Until then, happy investing!
— The Investogy Team, Kätlin & Siimon