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Signals After The Cut: Stability With Caution
THE PORTFOLIO
THIS WEEK IN OUR WALLET
Hi! We hope your week went smoothly. The Fed cut rates, stocks held steady, and long-term interest rates eased. Investors are watching how this combination shapes growth expectations and the policy outlook.
Markets just closed and the portfolio stands at $66,428.70, up $675.73 (+1.03%) for the week versus the S&P 500 at +1.1% WTD. Etsy was the top mover; Nvidia was the main drag. Broader equities firmed after the Federal Reserve lowered the policy rate by 25 bps, with major indexes advancing mid-week.
Make sure to take a look at our entire portfolio here.
Winner — Etsy (+$50.33 / +12.44%)
There was no company-specific announcement, but the stock gained alongside growth assets as investors responded to the Fed’s rate cut and guidance for gradual easing. The setup favored duration-sensitive names across consumer and tech; Etsy traded higher in that context.
Loser — Nvidia (–$47.29 / –0.65%)
Nvidia eased after a series of China-related headlines, including reports of purchase curbs by regulators and ongoing antitrust scrutiny, which weighed on sentiment despite broader market strength. The stock also slipped during the mid-week Fed run-up as traders reduced exposure ahead of the decision.
STORY OF THE WEEK
RATE CUTS
The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points on September 17, setting the target range at 4.00% to 4.25%, the lowest since late 2022. Policymakers signaled the possibility of two more cuts this year, with pace and timing guided by incoming data.
The pivot leaned toward labor. Payrolls rose by just 22,000 in August, jobless claims spiked to a near four‑year high before easing, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary benchmark showed 911,000 fewer jobs over the year through March than first reported. Those labor signals outweighed still‑sticky inflation, with CPI up 2.9% year over year in August.
The vote was 11–1. Newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran pressed for a half‑point move. Governor Lisa Cook participated after a federal appeals court blocked her removal; the White House has now asked the Supreme Court to let it fire her.
QUICK HITS
THIS WEEK, ON OUR DESK
Labor: Initial jobless claims fell 33k to 231k; continuing claims 1.92m. Part of the drop reflects exhausted eligibility and earlier Texas data issues. The broader trend points to gradual cooling.
Housing: August single-family starts −7.0% to 890k SAAR; total starts 1.307m (−8.5%). Inventories remain high, so lower rates may take time to lift new construction.
Retail: August retail sales +0.6% m/m; import prices for capital and consumer goods increased. Mastercard projects holiday sales +3.6% overall and +7.9% online, implying heavier use of promotions.
Live Nation: The US Federal Trade Commissionsued over Ticketmaster/Live Nation resale practices; Live Nation Entertainment’s stock −3%. The case adds meaningful regulatory risk to the model.
Alphabet: Google stock surpassed $3T in market value. The milestone raises index weights and reinforces large-cap influence.
Lyft / Uber: Lyft stock rose on Waymo’s plan to launch robotaxis in Nashville in 2026; Uber −4%+ on competition concerns.
Intel: The stock rose +24.6% on reports of a potential large partner investment; Nvidia ~+2.3%. The headlines supported a broader advance in semiconductors.
That’s the wrap for this week’s market movements. We’ll be back next week with more updates on our live portfolio.
Until then, happy investing!
— The Investogy Team, Kätlin & Siimon
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