📊 Massive AI Spending, Minimal Stock Upside

VAST Data has signed a $1.17 billion deal with cloud provider CoreWeave, expanding their existing partnership as demand for AI services rises. CoreWeave will use VAST Data as the company's main data platform, allowing customers to access Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) for training and running artificial intelligence models. VAST Data noted that contracts of this nature are usually between three to five years in duration, though the company wouldn't disclose specific terms.

The deal gives VAST Data a major revenue source to add to the company's already free cash flow-positive business, with $200 million in annual recurring revenue as of January 2025. The deal has the potential to accelerate funding for VAST Data. Possible investors such as Alphabet's CapitalG and Nvidia are considering multibillion-dollar investments that would value the company up to $30 billion. This deal also highlights the strong trend of close alignment between AI software providers and cloud platforms.

This partnership places VAST Data as a key player in the AI ecosystem, while also giving CoreWeave an edge in GPU cloud services. This can be proof that AI infrastructure can pull huge revenues while supporting gigantic AI workloads. Seamless collaboration between software and cloud infrastructure is the future of AI, and successful execution here might change how AI applications will be developed and scaled in the upcoming years.

Jobs report withheld: The Labor Department did not release the October Employment Situation report on November 7 due to the federal shutdown, removing a crucial input for rate and risk-premium models.

Supreme Court on tariffs: On Nov 5, the U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments on whether the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) authorizes Trump-era broad tariffs, and several justices signaled skepticism, with a decision expected in 2026

Fed enforcement actions: The Federal Reserve announced actions against Belt Valley Bank and The Halstead Bank on November 6. This highlights the Fed's ongoing supervisory focus and potential costs related to compliance for banks.

Layoffs surge: On November 6, Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported a total of 153,074 job-cut announcements in October, which is the highest number for the month of October since 2003. The total number of cuts year-to-date has reached 1,099,500 (a 65% increase year-over-year).

Bank of England rate decision: The Bank of England chose to keep the Bank Rate at 4% on November 6, following a 5–4 vote. This decision signals that the central bank's policy remains restrictive, which has global effects on discount rates.

Consumer sentiment: The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropped to 50.3 in the November reading on November 7. This reading is near the lowest point ever recorded for the series, reflecting ongoing concerns about the government shutdown.

Federal Aviation Administration flight reductions: The FAA announced on November 7 that it will reduce flight capacity by 10% across 40 high-volume U.S. airport markets starting Friday morning. The cuts, ramping up from 4% on November 7, address controller strain during the shutdown, potentially affecting thousands of flights.

Amazon–OpenAI cloud deal: Amazon Web Services (AWS) and OpenAI announce multi-year strategic partnership” page (dated November 3) describing a seven-year, $38B deal and immediate use of AWS infrastructure.

Fed supervisory ratings: The Federal Reserve made final changes on November 5, allowing a financial firm to still be considered "well managed" even if it has no more than one "deficient-1" component. These changes will take effect 60 days after being published in the Federal Register.

Starbucks–Boyu China Joint Venture: Starbucks agreed to form a China joint venture with Boyu Capital on November 3. Boyu will hold up to 60%, pricing its stake off a $4 billion enterprise value, while Starbucks retains 40% and brand IP.

Coeur wants to acquire New Gold: Coeur Mining (CDE) signed an all-stock agreement on November 3 to acquire New Gold (0.4959 CDE per NGD share), implying a value of $8.51 per NGD share (around 16% premium). Closing is targeted for the first half of the year 2026.

Palantir vs. Burry: Palantir CEO Alex Karp was reported by the New York Post as calling Michael Burry "bats - crazy" on November 4, for betting against (shorting) both Palantir and Nvidia stock. Independent confirmation (transcript/clip) of these remarks is still advised.

Archer Aviation (ACHR): Shares went down over 9% on November 7, following a $650M equity raise and a deal to acquire L.A.'s Hawthorne Airport for $126M cash to build an air-taxi hub. The raise lifts total liquidity to over $2B and anchors the planned Los Angeles network.

Schwab & Forge Global: Charles Schwab agreed to acquire Forge Global on November 6, for approximately $660 million at a price of $45 per share. The acquisition is targeted to close in the first half of 2026.

Microsoft & Iris Energy (IREN) capacity deal: Microsoft signed a $9.7 billion, five-year agreement on November 3 to secure Nvidia GB300 compute capacity through a partnership with Dell.

Bitcoin pulls back: On Nov 4–5, Bitcoin briefly fell below the psychological $100,000 level, trading as low as about $99,076, and sits a little over 20% below its Oct 6 record near $126,080.

Spotify’s Third Quarter: Spotify released its results on November 4, reporting 713 million monthly active users (an 11% increase year-over-year), 281 million premium subscribers (a 12% increase year-over-year), €4.3 billion in revenue, and €582 million in operating income.

Other interesting reads:

Tesla Shareholders Approve Musk's $1 Trillion Payday: Tesla shareholders decisively backed Elon Musk’s new compensation plan, potentially worth up to $1 trillion, with over 75% support on November 6 at the annual meeting. The massive award vests only if Tesla achieves steep milestones, such as pushing market value toward $8.5 trillion and scaling robotaxi and humanoid-robot programs. (The Compensation Plan)

Tragedy in Louisville & The Investigation: The National Transportation Safety Board announced on November 6 that it will examine the maintenance history of the UPS MD-11 that crashed after takeoff in Louisville on November 4, killing at least 13. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) records show a structural crack was repaired prior to the crash. Investigators recovered the flight recorders, noted no immediate safety concerns for the broader fleet, and expect a preliminary report in about 30 days. (The Investigation)

China-Germany Shipment Restart: Germany welcomed "de-escalation" as China began granting export exemptions on November 7. Auto supplier Aumovio secured approval, and Honda confirmed its shipments in China have resumed. While Nexperia awaits confirmation, it expects flows to restart soon as exemptions are rolled out to stabilize supply. (The Shipment Export)

🟩 Up this week

Expedia (EXPE) +17.39% WTD: Stock rallied after the company guided to higher 2025 revenue and margin growth on stronger business-client bookings. (The Rally)

Amgen (AMGN) +7.33% WTD: Shares rose after a profit beat and a raised outlook, focusing investors on the pipeline and obesity assets. (The Obesity Problems)

Datadog (DDOG) +17.09% WTD: Shares surged after the company projected Q4 revenue and EPS above estimates on AI-driven security demand. (The Projected Revenue)

Kenvue (KVUE) +17.54% WTD: Shares jumped after Kimberly-Clark agreed to buy Kenvue in a cash-and-stock deal valued at approximately $48.7 billion. (The Dream Team)

🟥 Down this week

Arm Holdings (ARM) -10.52% WTD: The stock advanced after its third-quarter forecast topped expectations, helped by AI demand. (The Forecast)

Palantir (PLTR) -11.64% WTD: Shares declined despite a strong quarterly update as the rally stalled on valuation concerns. (The Concerning Update)

Block (SQ) -13.77% WTD: The stock fell after investors balked at profit growth lagging volumes at Square. (The Lagging Volumes)

Microchip Technology (MCHP) -9.80% WTD: The stock slid after the company forecast quarterly net sales below estimates. (The Forecast Miss)

That’s the wrap for this week’s market movements. We’ll be back next week with more updates on our live portfolio.

Until then, happy investing!
— The Investogy Team, Kätlin & Siimon

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