📊 How Metals Stole The Week

Metals dominated markets this week. Gold briefly surpassed $4,000/oz for the first time on October 8. It later peaked at about $4,050 and was trading at about $4,040 on October 9, around 54% higher so far this year. On October 8–9, silver set records at $49.6–$50/oz, up about 70% YTD. On October 9, LME three-month copper reached $11,000/ton, the highest levels since May 2024 and more than 21% in 2025.

The drivers were unambiguous. While copper was supported by the Chinese post-festival demand and restrictive mine supply, gold and silver were endorsed by safe-haven buying, a weakening dollar, and accommodative policy expectations. The U.S. announced on October 6 that it would acquire a 10% stake in Trilogy Metals for $35.6 million. The next day, TMQ stock rose more than 200 percent, which emphasized the policy support for major minerals. Resource-rich equity indices strengthened along with miners, and gold-backed EFTs also saw large inflows.

Investors are shifting their money toward metals, mining companies, and related ETFs, drawn by record hights in gold and silver and a strong copper market. These rising prices are adding pressure on inflation and increasing costs for manufacturers. Looking ahead, this trend could affect interest rate expectations, currency movements, and how different sectors perform.

Fed Governor Michael Barr: Barr said inflation risks remain sticky even after September’s cut, so the Fed should tread carefully before easing again. That stance reinforces a slower path for rate reductions and keeps a higher floor under discount rates.

New York Fed President John Williams: Williams signaled that additional 2025 cuts could be warranted to ensure against labor-market softening. His guidance pushes OIS pricing and the front end, shaping near-term funding costs for borrowers.

San Francisco Fed’s Mary Daly: Daly argued that a cooling labor market and easing inflation justify keeping more cuts on the table. That message supports rate-sensitive risk assets by anchoring expectations for lower real yields.

Jobless claims workaround: With official data paused by the shutdown, JPMorgan estimated initial claims around 235k. Markets are leaning on private gauges instead, a shift that can raise noise and volatility.

Shutdown, week two: The funding standoff rolled into a second week after the Senate failed on competing bills. The longer the impasse lasts, the more disruption and uncertainty will bleed into data releases and agency operations.

Rare-earths ripple: China’s tighter export controls sent rare-earth miners higher. The move flags higher capex needs and potential margin pressure for EV and industrial supply chains reliant on those inputs.

Trump vs. Xi: After Beijing tightened rare-earth export rules, Trump threatened a “massive” tariff hike and said he’d scrap a planned meeting with Xi, escalating supply-chain risk. U.S.-linked rare-earth plays popped, with MP Materials (MP) and USA Rare Earth (USAR) each stock up ~15% intraday today.

BOE bubble caution: The Bank of England warned that markets could face a sharp correction if AI enthusiasm fades or policy support disappoints. That echoes mounting bubble concerns and argues for tighter risk management.

Nvidia/TSMC read-through: Nvidia’s rally extended after TSMC reported September sales are up approximately 31% YoY and a 30% YoY jump in Q3 revenue on AI demand. The print reinforces expectations for strong accelerator shipments and a firm capex cycle.

U.S. “government stakes” push: The White House is moving to take minority stakes in strategic chipmakers to “safeguard U.S. tech leadership,” with a disclosed 10% federal stake in Intel and others potentially to follow. That blend of industrial policy and politics could reshape capital allocation in semis.

PepsiCo’s steady hand: PepsiCo beat Q3 expectations and appointed a new CFO, reinforcing confidence in guidance and cash-return discipline. The combination supports a defensive growth narrative into year-end.

BMW resets 2025: BMW cut its 2025 profit outlook on tariff exposure and China weakness. The downgrade highlights policy and demand headwinds facing global autos and their supplier networks.

Tesla FSD scrutiny: NHTSA opened a probe into around 2.88M Tesla vehicles over Full Self-Driving violations, citing reports of red-light running, wrong-way driving, and 14 crashes. The review raises regulatory and liability risk around advanced driver assistance.

Novo Nordisk buys Akero: On October 9, Novo agreed to acquire Akero for up to $5.2B to add a late-stage MASH candidate to its cardiometabolic lineup. The deal deepens NVO’s pipeline in a large, under-treated market.

Fed chair chatter: Gov. Christopher Waller said his interview for Fed Chair went “great,” keeping leadership uncertainty alive into 2025. A change at the helm could influence the reaction function and market path for rates.

Regional-bank consolidation: Fifth Third will buy Comerica in an all-stock deal valued at $10.9B, creating the 9th-largest U.S. bank. The tie-up may reset funding costs, fee mix, and competitive dynamics across regionals.

Rocket Lab adds lift: Rocket Lab announced a three-mission contract with iQPS (Oct 7) and, today, multiple launches with JAXA. The wins extend cadence visibility into 2025–2026 and strengthen its small-sat order book.

Other interesting reads:

Space economy flows: Seraphim Space says global space venture funding hit a record $3.5B in Q3, with today’s tape highlighted by Stoke Space’s $510M raise and satellite-bus maker Apex crossing a $1B+ valuation, while China’s Galactic Energy secured $336M. This is a mix that underscores defense-tilted, hardware-heavy risk appetite even as broader markets wobble. (The Funding)

Nobel Peace Prize: Venezuela’s opposition leader María Corina Machado, barred from the 2024 ballot and living in hiding, won the 2025 prize, prompting a terse “Oh my God… I have no words” from the laureate and a critical response from the White House, turning a human-rights salute into a fresh political flashpoint. (The Nobel Prize)

Tesla pay package: Tesla’s board pitched Elon Musk up to $878B in stock over 10 years for “Mars-shot” milestones, but Reuters notes that the autonomy, robotaxi, and robot goals are vague, meaning that even modest targets could pay him more than the next eight best-paid CEOs combined. (The Pitch)

🟩 Up this week

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) +31.57% WTD: A multi-year AI chip supply pact with OpenAI, including a warrant for up to ~10% stake, reinforced demand visibility and ecosystem alignment. (The Deal)

Dell Technologies (DELL) +7.78% WTD: Management raised long-term revenue and EPS growth targets on AI server momentum, with follow-on broker target hikes. (The Outlook)

Costco Wholesale (COST) +2.03% WTD: September net sales rose 8% YoY, underscoring traffic and mix tailwinds for membership retail. (The Membership)

Albemarle (ALB) +2.85% WTD: A bullish analyst call and China export policy backdrop supported lithium pricing sentiment and earnings leverage. (The Wrap)

🟥 Down this week

3M (MMM) −6.14% WTD: The stock weighed on the Dow in Thursday’s session amid macro caution during the shutdown and sector softness. (The Wrap)

Boeing (BA) −2.39% WTD: The name lagged with order-risk chatter and a weak tape for industrials, pressuring sentiment. (The Chatter)

Newmont (NEM) −1.41% WTD: After gold’s record pop, the metal eased and miners retraced as profit-taking set in. (The Print)

Joby Aviation (JOBY) −10.36% WTD: A $514M discounted equity offering extended runway for certification/manufacturing but diluted holders. (The Deal)

That’s the wrap for this week’s market movements. We’ll be back next week with more updates on our live portfolio.

Until then, happy investing!
— The Investogy Team, Kätlin & Siimon

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