📊 Boston Scientific’s Biggest Swing in Decades

Boston Scientific announced that the company has signed a definitive agreement to acquire Penumbra in a cash-and-stock deal worth approximately $14.5 billion. Penumbra shareholders can choose $374 in cash or 3.8721 Boston Scientific shares per share, based on proration, so the overall consideration is approximately 73% cash and 27% stock. Boston Scientific expects to fund the roughly $11 billion cash portion using cash on hand plus new debt. The companies anticipate that the transaction will close in 2026, subject to approval from Penumbra shareholders and other customary conditions. Additionally, Penumbra Chief Executive Officer Adam Elsesser is expected to join the Boston Scientific board upon closing.

This deal is Boston Scientific’s biggest deal in about two decades, indicating that large-scale mergers and acquisitions in the healthcare sector might be finding its footing again. The acquisition will enable Boston Scientific to have critical mass in the clot removal business as well as neurovascular products, for which procedural growth could be sustainable. Penumbra’s platforms include Lightning Bolt and Lightning Flash, backed by developmental momentum in randomized data from STORM-PE trials, indicating improved RV/LV ratio in comparison to anticoagulation alone.

Boston Scientific is paying for speed, and the market will focus on execution rather than the headline price. This has already been reflected in statements that the acquisition will decrease adjusted earnings per share between $0.06 and $0.08 in the first year after closing, so there is very little latitude for “wait and see” scenarios. If Boston Scientific can expand Penumbra’s reach globally while keeping product development moving, the longer-term payoff can justify the near-term dilution and added debt.

Inflation news: The December Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 2.7% from last year, and the inflation trajectory remained in the spotlight for the Fed and market expectations for bond yield and stock market valuation.

Beige Book analysis: In the Fed’s January Beige Book, the overall trend is a modest expansion alongside price pressures, consistent with a cautious monetary policy, which is important for loan costs.

Credit card rate-cap proposal: A suggested limit of 10% per annum annual percentage rate on credit cards might increase risks for lending institutions and result in less credit being offered, particularly to high-risk borrowers.

Overseas demand for United States assets: An $212.0 billion net increase in Nov Treasury International Capital (TIC) data indicates good demand, which will help curb the rise in term interests.

Equity fund flows: United States equity funds took in $28.18 billion over the week, signaling supportive investor positioning going into earnings season.

Oil and geopolitics: Oil prices fell as the markets perceived that the likelihood of a near-term United States strike on Iran was low, therefore reducing the near-term inflation backdrop.

Taiwan trade signal: Taiwan's market rose 1.9% after a United States and Taiwan trade deal, a reminder that trade policy shifts can quickly change expectations for regional exporters and supply chains.

Merger filing threshold: The Federal Trade Commission raised the 2026 Hart-Scott-Rodino reporting threshold to $133.9 million, changing what kind of transactions have to file and potentially easing some smaller deals.

Japan investigates Grok: Japan reportedly is investigating X's Grok for inappropriate AI-generated images and warned that it may take legal steps if the safeguards of the service don't get any better, raising compliance risk for AI services linked to platforms.

Bowman on rate policy: Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman said the Fed should be prepared to cut rates again if the job market weakens and urged avoiding signaling a pause without clear changes in conditions.

Crypto legislation timing: The Senate Banking Committee shelved efforts on a digital asset market structure bill, which led to continued ambiguity regarding the United States’ regulatory regime for crypto assets.

Meta and WhatsApp in Italy: Meta exempted Italy from a WhatsApp policy that restricted competitor AI chatbots following an order by Italian antitrust authorities. This highlights how fast local regulatory bodies can push companies to change their products.

ISS on Kimberly-Clark-Kenvue: Proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advised its clients to support the proposed takeover of Kenvue by Kimberly-Clark ahead of the close-of-business vote set on January 29. The advice boosted the chances of the takeover being successful, while litigation risk remains.

BBC and YouTube deal: It is known that the BBC is working on creating the first-ever specific content pact with YouTube so as to share ad revenues outside the United Kingdom, given that the YouTube United Kingdom viewership in December (51.9 million) was a touch higher than the BBC’s (50.8 million).

ClickHouse funding and acquisition: ClickHouse raised $400 million with a valuation of $15 billion and made an acquisition of Langfuse to further the development and monitoring of large language models. This indicates significant investor interest in data infrastructure with AI capabilities.

Wegovy pill early launch read: Early United States retail pharmacy data showed 3,071 Wegovy pill prescriptions in its first four days (excluding online), an initial signal as the market watches the launch and awaits the Food and Drug Administration decision on Lilly’s pill expected by April.

SiFive adopts NVLink: SiFive announced that the company will integrate Nvidia’s NVLink into RISC-V CPU designs so future chips can connect to Nvidia AI accelerators at high speeds, which could make RISC-V more viable for data-center systems over time.

Other interesting reads:

Trump Receives Nobel Medal from Venezuelan Leader: Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado gave her Nobel Peace Prize medal to President Donald Trump at the White House. Machado called the meeting “excellent” and said the gift honored Trump’s support for Venezuelan freedom. Trump plans to keep the medal. The meeting came as he focuses on the United States access to Venezuelan oil, while Machado met senators to discuss her country’s political future. (The Nobel Prize)

Prince Harry Takes on Daily Mail in Privacy Case: Prince Harry will appear in person next week in London for testimony in a privacy suit against the publisher of the Daily Mail. He and six others, including Elton John, accuse the tabloid press of illegal phone hacking and other serious intrusions. The case represents years of lawsuits stemming from the bad behavior of journalists and is the latest example of Harry's fight against aggressive media practices that contributed to his relocation to America. (The Prince’s Privacy)

Supreme Court Delays Ruling on Trump’s Tariffs: The United States Supreme Court has not handed down a decision regarding the constitutionality of President Trump's world tariffs. The lower courts have already stated that Trump broke the law in issuing these tariffs and that the current case is a significant test of a president’s authority. There is no set date for when the decision will be rendered. (The No-decision Day)

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🟩 Up this week

Moderna (MRNA) +21.95% WTD: Moderna said 2025 sales should land near the top of the company’s prior range and cut its 2025 expense forecast, while reiterating the company’s 2026 growth target. (The True Climb)

Micron Technology (MU) +4.03% WTD: Investor optimism about AI-driven memory demand supported memory-chip names, including Micron. (The Real Demand)

TSMC (TSM) +5.91% WTD: TSMC reported a record quarter and forecast robust growth, helping lift broader semiconductor sentiment. (The Rally)

Goldman Sachs (GS) +2.41% WTD: Goldman’s quarterly profit beat expectations on stronger dealmaking and trading, including record equities revenue. (The Trading Revenue)

🟥 Down this week

Affirm Holdings (AFRM) -9.46% WTD: Affirm fell alongside other consumer-finance names after the proposed one-year 10% cap on credit-card interest rates weighed on the group. (The Weak Volume)

Netflix (NFLX) -1.71% WTD: Netflix stayed under pressure as investors focused on uncertainty around its proposed Warner Bros asset deal ahead of earnings. (The False Optimism)

Constellation Energy (CEG) -10.05% WTD: Constellation dropped after a report said states with rapid data-center expansion would sign an agreement aimed at curbing electricity costs. (The Power Producers)

Regions Financial (RF) -2.66% WTD: Regions fell after reporting results that missed forecasts. (The Missing Forecast)

That’s the wrap for this week’s market movements. We’ll be back next week with more updates on our live portfolio.

Until then, happy investing!
— The Investogy Team, Kätlin & Siimon

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