📊 AI’s Biggest Check is Still Unsigned, But Markets are Listening

Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon are reportedly in talks with OpenAI to invest a maximum of $60 billion, as reported by Reuters. According to Reuters, Nvidia may invest a maximum of $30 billion, Microsoft may invest less than $10 billion, and Amazon may invest more than $20 billion. OpenAI is said to be close to getting term sheets from these companies. Amazon and Microsoft have not commented on the issue, and Nvidia and OpenAI have not responded to Reuters' queries outside of business hours.

Such an investment would be one of the biggest in the tech industry in recent years. This is also an indication of the cost of training and running top AI models, which consume a lot of computing power. Amazon’s interest in the investment could be linked to other business discussions, such as cloud hosting services and the sale of OpenAI products through Amazon’s platforms. The discussions also indicate that the biggest tech companies believe there is value in getting access to the best AI models and the demand they drive.

Markets will probably treat this as a signal about the next wave of AI spending, even before anything is signed. If the talks advance, investors could become more positive on companies that sell AI hardware and data center equipment, because demand could look stronger. At the same time, markets could become more cautious on cloud and platform margins if these firms commit to large spending that does not pay back quickly. Until there is official confirmation, the story is likely to keep driving short-term price moves as traders react to each new detail.

Powell transcript: The Federal Reserve released the transcript of Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference. This provides more information to investors about how interest rates may move based on inflation or growth surprises.

Wholesale prices: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that producer prices rose 0.5 percent in December, which can keep cost pressures alive for companies and influence expectations for interest rates.

Jobless claims: The United States Labor Department reported 209,000 new unemployment claims, a datapoint that can quickly shift rate expectations and market confidence in the economy.

Cuba order: The White House issued an executive order on Cuba that took effect on January 30, which can raise compliance and cross-border business risks for companies with exposure.

Guatemala trade deal: The United States Trade Representative signed a reciprocal trade agreement with Guatemala. The purpose of this agreement is to reduce trade barriers and increase exports to the region.

Apple results: Apple reported 143.8 billion dollars of revenue in its first fiscal quarter of 2026, updating expectations for cash generation that supports buybacks and drives index-level earnings.

Meta results: Meta reported results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025, reshaping expectations for advertising demand and spending that can move valuations across large technology firms.

Trial restart: Intellia said the United States Food and Drug Administration lifted a clinical hold on its Phase 3 trial, increasing the odds of future product revenue and improving the funding outlook for similar biotechnology companies.

Tax leak lawsuit: President Donald Trump, his sons, and the Trump Organization filed a lawsuit against the Internal Revenue Service and the Treasury Department for 10 billion dollars, stating that the agencies did not protect the tax returns from a contractor leak.

Next Federal Reserve chair: President Donald Trump said he will nominate Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve when Jerome Powell’s term as chair ends in May 2026, a move that can shift expectations for future policy and market stability.

New Lilly plant: Eli Lilly and Co said it will build a $3.5 billion factory in Pennsylvania to make injectable weight-loss drugs, signaling investment in future capacity.

Gold pullback: Gold fell sharply after the United States dollar strengthened following the Federal Reserve chair's announcement, showing how quickly crowded trades can unwind when rate expectations shift.

SoFi earnings: SoFi reported higher profit as demand for loans and fee-based services grew, suggesting more resilience when interest-rate conditions change.

American Express outlook: American Express Co projected the company’s earnings and revenue growth for 2026, beating expectations, but reported a weaker profit in the company's holiday period due to increased costs.

Verizon momentum: Verizon forecast stronger 2026 profit and free cash flow after the company’s best wireless subscriber growth in six years, signaling that promotions and bundled plans are still pulling customers.

AstraZeneca licensing deal: AstraZeneca agreed to license obesity drug candidates from China’s CSPC in a deal that could reach 18.5 billion dollars with milestones, expanding the company’s pipeline options in a fast-growing market.

Exxon and Venezuela: Exxon Mobil’s chief executive officer said the company has technology to produce Venezuela’s high-cost heavy crude and would consider sending a technical team if conditions improve, which could affect future supply dynamics in the region.

Other interesting reads:

SpaceX merger talks: SpaceX is reportedly considering a merger with Elon Musk’s xAI in preparation for an initial public offering later this year, which could see the companies swap shares and consolidate several of Musk’s companies under one umbrella. Such a merger could change the way the companies are valued while also adding complexity to the process for anyone considering an IPO of SpaceX. (The Space Merger)

Pentagon guardrails dispute: The Pentagon and Anthropic are deadlocked in negotiations related to a potential contract worth up to 200 million dollars, as Anthropic insists on restrictions that will prevent its artificial intelligence system from being used for autonomous weapons targeting or domestic surveillance. This dispute has the potential to hinder the development and deployment of commercial artificial intelligence systems for defense-related work in the near term. (The Potential Contract)

Royal green legacy: A new documentary, “Finding Harmony: A King’s Vision,” was launched at Windsor Castle and will highlight King Charles' decades-long fight for environmental causes before its release on Amazon Prime Video next month. The documentary will feature his appeal for living in harmony with nature and keeping the issues of sustainability and conservation alive. (The Royal Documentary)

🟩 Up this week

Sandisk (SNDK) +15.39% WTD: Sandisk reported the company’s fiscal second-quarter results and updated its outlook, which can move a stock quickly when investors rethink near-term sales and profit expectations. (The Quarterly Results)

Stryker (SYK) +2.48% WTD: Stryker shared the company’s 2025 results and said the company expects 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $14.90 to $15.10, which can strengthen confidence in cash generation for its medical device business. (The Cash Generation)

GE Vernova (GEV) +9.31% WTD: GE Vernova released fourth-quarter results and updated its multi-year outlook, which matters because stronger orders and guidance can signal higher future cash flows. (The Future Flows)

General Motors (GM) +5.44% WTD: General Motors issued 2026 guidance, raised its quarterly dividend to $0.18 per share, and approved a new $6.0 billion share buyback plan, which can support the stock by increasing returns to shareholders. (The Buyback Plan)

🟥 Down this week

Tesla (TSLA) -3.64% WTD: Tesla filed a report with regulators directing investors to the company’s fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, which can shift expectations for profit margins and demand in a very cyclical business. (The Report)

Boeing (BA) -8.65% WTD: Boeing filed a report with regulators that included the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 results, which can affect the stock when investors reassess cash burn and debt risk. (The Debt Risk)

The Trade Desk (TTD) -17.43% WTD: The Trade Desk filed a report with regulators reaffirming the company’s revenue and profit guidance, which can still move the stock when investors focus on how sensitive the business is to advertising spending. (The Profit Guidance)

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) -0.30% WTD: The securities regulator charged Archer-Daniels-Midland and three former executives and announced a $40 million penalty, which can weigh on shares by raising legal and governance concerns. (The Governance Concerns)

That’s the wrap for this week’s market movements.

We’re taking a break from the Investogy newsletter. This pause gives us space to rethink the format and ensure what we publish is truly valuable and aligned with our direction. We want to be thoughtful and intentional rather than continuing on autopilot. We’re grateful to everyone who has followed and supported Investogy so far.

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