AI Infrastructure Stole The Week

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Winner — Nvidia (+$389.91 / +5.65%)
Catalyst: reports that OpenAI and Nvidia plan multi-billion-dollar UK data-center investments, reforcing the sovereign-AI build-out. The AI trade also re-ignited after Oracle required a half-trillion cloud order book, pulling semis higher. Result: NVDA captured the week’s AI-infrastructure bid.

Loser — Asana Inc (–$11.00 / –3.99%)
No new company catalyst. Asana Inc faded with midweek SaaS softness as flows rotated toward AI-infrastructure winners; several workflow names slid into the close during the afternoon sessions. Intraday ranges tightened: on 9/11, the stock traded $13.18–$13.82 on Thursday and closed $13.21 on Friday. Broader software sentiment also absorbed a Synopsys −35% shock on 9/10, adding pressure to the group.

You know a rally is getting confident when hotter inflation meets falling yields. This week, CPI ran warm, jobless claims jumped, and the bond market still marked down funding costs. That isn’t swagger; it’s a judgment about growth risk.

What's new:
What’s new this week: August inflation ran warmer—headline +0.4% m/m (+2.9% y/y) and core +0.3% m/m (+3.1% y/y)—even as initial jobless claims hit 263k. The 10-year Treasury slipped to 3.996% intraday and closed ~4.010%, while Fed-funds futures leaned toward a 25 bp move next week. Meanwhile, gold printed a record ~$3,674 intraday and stocks logged midweek record closes as rate-cut odds firmed.

Scorecard:
Prices: CPI +0.4% m/m, +2.9% y/y; core +0.3% m/m, +3.1% y/y. PPI −0.1% m/m and +2.6% y/y. Labor: Initial claims 263k, up 12k w/w, highest since 2021. Rates & FX: 10-year low 3.996%, close ~4.010%; dollar eased after the data. Equities: S&P 500/Nasdaq posted record closes midweek as AI-infra strength and softer producer prices underpinned the bid.

Receipts:
The inflation figures come from the BLS release and tables. Claims and the cross-asset reaction were documented by Reuters the same morning. The 10-year intraday low and settlement were recorded in WSJ’s live feed. Gold’s record prints and weekly gain were tracked across multiple updates. The equity highs were logged on Wednesday. The market-implied cut probability came via Reuters' currencies coverage.

Why it matters:
Pricing power vs. funding cost: A lower 10-year supports higher multiples, but margins still face a headline CPI that accelerated. Positioning risk: With records in equities and gold, the market is expressing hedged conviction, not blind confidence. What to watch: The statement and projections next week matter more than the first 25 bp—especially labor revisions and any nod to energy pass-through.

ECB — Hold steady: Held the deposit rate at 2%; traders trimmed odds of another move as banks pushed forecasts to December. Rate-cut hopium met policy patience.

Dollar & Yields — Bulls blink: Dollar index hovered near 97.6 as claims hit 263k; the 10-year closed ~4.01%. Dollar bulls blinked first.

Indexes — Record highs: S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched record closes as AI-spend headlines hit; Oracle’s one-day pop topped +35%. The AI playlist kept looping.

Oil — Supply squeeze: Brent settled near $66–67 and WTI $62–64 on oversupply and a +3.9M-bbl U.S. crude build. Energy longs are sized down quickly.

Gold — Shining louder: Spot topped $3,600/oz; UBS lifted its target to $3,800 by year-end. When rates whisper “down,” gold shouts.

Microsoft/OpenAI — Restructure talk: Non-binding deal clears a path to a for-profit structure; OpenAI nonprofit poised for >$100B stake at a $500B target valuation. Cap tables evolve with compute demand.

Media M&A — Chatter trade: WBD jumped ~30% on chatter that Paramount Skydance is prepping a bid. Deal rumors remain the Street’s oldest momentum trade.

That’s the wrap for this week’s market movements. We’ll be back next week with more updates on our live portfolio.

Until then, happy investing!
— The Investogy Team, Kätlin & Siimon

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