📊 Who's The Leader in The Meta-Google-Nvidia AI-Chip Triangle?

Meta is reportedly in talks with Google to spend billions of dollars on Google’s AI chips, called tensor processing units (TPUs), starting to rent them through Google Cloud as early as next year and then installing them in Meta data centers from 2027. Apparently, Google sees this as an opportunity to win business from one of the biggest customers of Nvidia and has set internal targets that TPUs could eventually help it capture up to 10% of Nvidia's current annual revenue.

Nvidia still supplies the vast majority of high-end AI accelerators, with analysts putting its market share around 80–90%. Meta is expected to spend up to $72 billion this year on AI-related infrastructure, and it is already one of Nvidia’s largest customers. Adding TPUs as a second major source of compute gives Meta bargaining power and a path to cheaper or more power-efficient capacity, while turning what was mainly an internal chip program at Google into a significant external product line. One recent analysis from Morgan Stanley suggests Alphabet (Google’s parent company) could ship 500,000 to 1,000,000 TPUs a year by 2027, and every extra 500,000 units could lift Google Cloud revenue by about 11% and earnings per share by about 3%.

This is not a collapse for Nvidia, yet it sends a clear signal that even the biggest tech companies are no longer comfortable relying on one supplier for critical AI hardware. Nvidia still holds a commanding position, particularly on the software side and when it comes to developer tools. The talks between Meta and Google show, however, that AI computing is now going to be a much more competitive landscape. Here, the probable long-term winners will be the companies tying their silicon closely to cloud services and AI products rather than those dependent primarily on selling the most expensive standalone chips.

Data blackout: Cancellation by the United States government of the October reports on the Consumer Price Index and jobless rate, because the shutdown blocked data collection, will leave the Fed and investors with less clarity on inflation and jobs heading into the December meeting and make expectations for rate action more volatile.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange outage: A cooling system failure at a CyrusOne data center forced the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group to halt trading in key futures and options from foreign exchange to Treasuries, briefly disrupting hedging and price discovery and reminding markets that infrastructure failures can create real trading risk.

China property stress: China Vanke's request to delay repayment of a 2-billion-yuan onshore bond and the succeeding S&P Global Ratings downgrade have intensified pressure on the country's property sector, renewing worries about spillovers to banks, suppliers, and high-yield credit tied to real estate.

Rate-cut optimism: Despite the outage in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, global risk assets extended their gains as their respective futures markets moved to price in roughly an 85% chance of a December Fed rate cut, anchoring short-term rate expectations and supporting higher valuations for stocks and corporate bonds.

Oil supply pause: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries+ is signaling a pause in planned oil output increases for early 2026 to address a growing supply surplus, all a part of keeping crude prices more stable. This is important for energy producers' cash flows and investment plans across the sector.

Job market signal: United States weekly jobless claims declined to a seven-month low, revealing a labour market that still supports household income while giving room to the Fed to move cautiously on rate cuts, keeping easing bets somewhat in check.

Black Friday spending: Record crowds are expected this year, but with United States consumer confidence weakening and inflation squeezing budgets, shoppers are becoming more selective, and retailers face the paradox of more foot traffic but less money spent.

Inflation nowcast: The Cleveland Fed's nowcasting model puts November inflation at about 3%, reinforcing the idea that price pressures are easing but still sticky enough that real borrowing costs will likely fall only gradually.

Apple and the Digital Markets Act: The European Commission's review of whether Apple Ads and Maps should be classified as "gatekeepers" under the Digital Markets Act-a move opposed by Apple-raises the risk of tougher rules that could hurt monetization and platform economics in the European Union.

Burry’s AI bubble warning: Michael Burry shut down his hedge fund and launched a paid Substack newsletter over November 24–25, using it to argue that the current AI boom is a bubble and to compare Nvidia to Cisco at the height of the dot-com era, sharpening his long-running caution on crowded AI trades.

Grindr deal break: Grindr dropped more than 10% after its board's special committee said on November 24 it was terminating discussions on a $3.46 billion take-private proposal from its two largest shareholders, removing a key speculative driver for the stock.

Novo Nordisk setback: Novo Nordisk shares fell over 10% in early trading and closed about 5–6% down on November 24, after the company said its semaglutide Alzheimer’s trial failed to show slowing of disease progression, undermining hopes for a major new use of its flagship drug.

Alibaba cloud push: Alibaba said on November 26 that revenue from its cloud business climbed 34% year over year, buoyed by strong demand for AI-focused infrastructure, but heavy subsidies and investment in data centers weighed on profit and highlighted how expensive the AI cloud race still is.

HP Inc. restructuring: HP announced on November 25–26 that it will eliminate 4,000–6,000 jobs worldwide through fiscal 2028 as leaning more on AI-driven operations and targeting around $1 billion a year in cost savings restructuring move took the stock down some 5–6%

Tesla AI chip: Tesla rose about 2.2% in premarket trading after Elon Musk said on November 24 that the company is close to finishing its in-house AI5 chip and has already deployed millions of custom AI chips in cars and data centers, reinforcing the narrative that Tesla is an AI platform as well as an automaker.

Silver record: Spot silver climbed to a fresh all-time high on November 28, up about 3% on the day and roughly 90% year to date, as investors rotated into perceived safe-haven metals amid mixed economic data and shifting expectations for United States monetary policy, leaving it well ahead of gold's around 60% gain this year.

Robinhood expansion: Shares of Robinhood jumped roughly 8–10% as the broker announced a joint venture with Susquehanna on November 26 to launch a futures and derivatives exchange focused on prediction markets, extending a rally that has left the stock up more than 200% year to date.

Other interesting reads:

Migration crackdown: In the wake of a fatal attack near the White House by an Afghan immigrant, President Trump said his administration will "permanently pause" migration from what he called "Third World countries," move to cut federal benefits for non-citizens, and review past admissions, drawing criticism from United Nations officials who say America still has a binding commitment under international law to uphold its refugee and asylum obligations. (The Asylum Obligations)

Hong Kong tower fire: The authorities have said that the Wang Fuk Court high-rise blaze has become the city's deadliest fire in nearly 80 years, killing at least 128, leaving about 200 missing, and triggering a manslaughter probe into renovation contractors amid outrage over faulty alarms, unsafe materials, and the impact on many migrant domestic workers. (The Deadliest Fire)

Louvre price hike: The price of tickets to Paris' Louvre will increase 45% to €32 for most visitors from outside the European Union beginning on January 14 in order to help pay for security upgrades and long-planned renovations after a high-profile crown jewel theft exposed serious vulnerabilities at the world's most-visited museum. (The Crown Jewel Theft)

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🟩 Up this week

Kohl's (KSS) +55.32% WTD: Kohl’s ripped higher after it reported a surprise third-quarter profit, better-than-expected revenue, and a raised outlook that forced shorts to cover and upgraded investors’ view of its holiday cash flow. (The Surprise Earnings)

Urban Outfitters (URBN) +16.28% WTD: Urban Outfitters surged after record Q3 profits and double-digit net sales growth showed strong brand momentum and better earnings power into year-end. (The Earnings Power)

Broadcom (AVGO) +17.61% WTD: Broadcom rose following reports that Alphabet is deepening its AI-chip partnership with the chipmaker for the production of Tensor Processing Units, solidifying the company's position in high-margin AI infrastructure. (The AI-chip Deal)

Analog Devices (ADI) +12.75% WTD: Analog Devices jumped as strong earnings momentum and bullish comments on AI and industrial demand prompted investors to pay up for its exposure to secular chip trends. (The Chip Trends)

🟥 Down this week

Zscaler (ZS) -9.01% WTD: Despite the top-line beat and upbeat guidance, the stock fell as investors remain focused on continuing operating losses and valuation, pressuring multiples across some high-growth security names. (The Losses & Valuation)

Deere & Company (DE) -3.30% WTD: Deere fell after predicting 2026 net income below consensus and signaling tariff and margin pressures in large ag, leading investors to cut earnings and capex estimates. (The Sad Outlook)

Nutanix (NTNX) -17.27% WTD: Nutanix fell after first-quarter revenue and its guidance for the next quarter and full fiscal year came in below expectations, with management blaming a shift in deal timing that raised fresh worries about its growth trajectory. (The Management Warning)

Ambarella (AMBA) -13.41% WTD: Ambarella plummeted after strong headline results, but its weaker gross-margin dynamics spooked the market, forcing traders to reassess how much they were willing to pay for its edge-AI growth story. (The Strong Reaction)

That’s the wrap for this week’s market movements. We’ll be back next week with more updates on our live portfolio.

Until then, happy investing!
— The Investogy Team, Kätlin & Siimon

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